Nathan Ruser, a satellite data analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), known for his conflict-zone analyses in places such as Ukraine and Myanmar, posted a message on X along with a heat map highlighting key data on the ongoing fighting along the Thai-Cambodian border.
He detailed developments in the escalation of tensions prior to the July 24 clashes between Thailand and Cambodia.
According to his analysis, most signs of military buildup and rising tensions appear to have originated from the Cambodian side. Cambodian military forces had reinforced various positions well before the May 28 incident and rapidly deployed strategic reinforcements immediately afterward.
Ruser’s examination of escalation data found:
- 33 escalatory events instigated by Cambodia
- 14 escalatory events instigated by Thailand
- 9 joint desescalatory events
He also highlighted several key movements in the timeline:
- The construction and fortification of the Phomn Phrasitthi Outpost near Preah Vihear temple. This demonstrates that frontline and strategic fortification was taking place across the border pre May 28 and not just Chong Bok.
- The rapid and intense deployment of elite and strategic units to the frontline the day after the May 28th clashes, including tanks, artillery and air defence. These suggest that Cambodian command was likely more prepared for an escalation in clashes and immediately responded.
- The temporary (90min) occupation of positions within Cambodia by a Thai company (more organised and larger than a patrol that had strayed) on June 19th, showing that escalation was coming from multiple sides.
- A larger Cambodian patrol “blocked” a Thai patrol on June 30th and continued their patrol in what Thailand asserted was its territory.
- The scale of large ammo transfers to the border from Cambodia in late June. It would be fascinating to know what preparation Thai troops were making at the time, but I don’t know that. Perhaps it was equivalent.
- The characterisation that the head of Hun Sen’s personal royal guard unit was commanding troops at the frontline.
This was already clearly a Hun Sen led affair, pursued for his own (not obvious) reasons, this puts more weight behind that assertion.
